Banks: Is It Time to Play?

Image: Getty Images @ Forbes

For investors hoping to scoop up European banking assets on the cheap, here's some info gathered from Forbes, who mysteriously presented the same info in a difficult to compare set of pictures. Pretty but not useful. Nonetheless, their article does highlight some important cautions: the report where they gathered the info from only considered sovereign exposures, and neither the corporate debt exposure or derivative positions, nor the knock-on effects of a sovereign default. Value play or value trap, it's hard to decide at this present moment. Nonetheless, here's a better table.

American banking assets are also trading cheaply these days, for its own sets of reasons - changing regulatory rules which would impact the big boys, mortgage issues still bubbling, and economy still reluctant to show signs of a sustained recovery. Do investigate these if you wish to make a play on banking, it might work out to be a better deal.

On Luck

Image: wallpaper-s.org

This article from Forbes got me thinking about what luck meant. I, like the author, don't quite believe in luck, or the way luck is usually defined, as a random streak brought about by chance as opposed to as a result of any effort by the protagonist. Sure, random things do occur and some of them do turn out to be good things (just as much as they can be bad things), but for the most part, we make our own luck, or so I would like to believe. Or as some others would say, luck is all about good attitude. 

By definition, luck is something that occurs by chance or is random, and hence is not something predictable or within our control. Perhaps another attitude towards luck is just one of ambivalence or even agnosticism, where it doesn't matter if there is or is not such a thing since it is uncontrollable and unpredictable. But while I do think there is such a thing as luck, I like the way Edward Gibbon puts it:

"The winds and waves are always on the side of the ablest navigators.”

 On that note, I would be having a hiatus of 2 weeks so good luck to all and happy investing.

Michael Mauboussin on Investment Approach and Philosophy

This video comes highly recommended by me. Steve Forbes interviews Michael Mauboussin, Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School and Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason and the video is filled with insights on behavioural biases, efficient markets, stock-picking, value investment - watch it and compare that with how you think about investments. Go here for the transcript.

One of my favourite bits is:

"So you go to the horse race and there are odds on the tote board.  That is the expectation of the performance of the horse.  And then there’s fundamentals: How fast that horse is going to run.  Now, if you studied tens of thousands of horse races, it turns out the markets are pretty efficient.  The ordinal finishes of the horses, first, second, third, as predicted by the odds, is pretty much what happens.  But from time to time, we know, there are mis-pricings.  There are odds on the tote board that just don’t well describe how that horse is likely to run. And that’s what the sharp handicappers are after.

Bring that over to the world of investing, and that’s the same thing.  We don’t have odds on the tote board, but we have something called the stock price.  So we reverse engineer the expectations built into that price. We say, “What has to happen for that to make sense?"

And then we look at how the fundamentals are likely to unfold.  It’s a probabilistic exercise. That would be the first piece.  The second piece, analytically, is bet size, which is once you have an edge, how much do you bet in your portfolio?  That’s a second key component which is often overlooked."

Tiger Airways: Not a Value Candidate

Image: Tiger Airways

Tiger Airways has been in the news alot lately, due to its planes being grounded by Australian regulators. To add insult to injury, it doesn't even turn a profitable operation there. With its high capex requirements, and the cyclical nature of the industry, throw in a short track record, and the highly competitive (and often unprofitable) nature of the airline industry. Tiger makes for a poor value investment candidate.

Best SGD FD rate

Saving money is an important way to begin or continue a financial journey. Einstein has reputedly said that compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe. Regardless of whether he actually spouted these words of wisdom, savings lay a foundation for security and investment. While we lament the rock-bottom interest rates, it is also a stimulant for corporates to borrow money and is a boost to corporate profitability.

Currently, it looks like State Bank of India and Maybank offers the best SGD fixed deposit rates. Red indicates best of class. Please contact the bank directly for its latest rate or promotions, and to make any deposits. Also note that bank deposits are only guaranteed up to a maximum of SGD 50,000 per bank (NOT per account), and so there can be tail-risk even in such a plain vanilla deposit.

I have included also some internet-based accounts, which has no lock-in periods to aid comparisons. For short-tenures, it might make absolutely no sense to use an FD.

SGD FD	Below $50,000				$50,000-$99,999
	3 months	6 months	1 year	3 years	3 months	6 months	1 year	3 years
Maybank	0.350%	0.500%	0.700%	1.250%	0.350%	0.500%	0.750%	1.300%
SBI	0.400%	0.450%	0.800%	1.000%	0.450%	0.550%	0.850%	1.050%
BOC		0.480%	0.980%			0.580%	1.080%
UOB	0.150%	0.250%	0.450%	0.700%	0.150%	0.250%	0.450%	0.700%
OCBC	0.150%	0.250%	0.450%	0.700%	0.150%	0.250%	0.450%	0.700%
DBS	0.150%	0.200%	0.350%		0.150%	0.250%	0.450%
Citibank	0.150%	0.250%	0.250%	0.350%	0.150%	0.250%	0.250%	0.350%
CIMB	0.150%	0.230%	0.800%		0.150%	0.230%	0.875%
StanChart	0.150%	0.250%	0.350%	0.750%	0.150%	0.250%	0.350%	0.750%
RHB	0.313%	0.375%	0.625%	1.250%	0.375%	0.438%	0.688%	1.250%
HSBC	0.180%	0.260%	0.450%		0.180%	0.260%	0.450%
	$100,000-$250,000				$250,000-$499,999
Maybank	0.350%	0.500%	0.750%	1.300%	0.350%	0.500%	0.800%	1.350%
SBI	0.450%	0.550%	0.850%	1.050%	0.450%	0.550%	0.850%	1.050%
BOC						0.680%	1.180%
UOB	0.150%	0.250%	0.450%	0.700%	0.150%	0.250%	0.450%	0.700%
OCBC	0.150%	0.250%	0.450%	0.700%	0.150%	0.250%	0.450%	0.700%
DBS	0.150%	0.250%	0.350%		0.150%	0.250%	0.350%
Citibank	0.150%	0.250%	0.250%	0.350%	0.150%	0.250%	0.250%	0.350%
CIMB	0.230%	0.400%	0.800%		0.230%	0.400%	0.800%
StanChart	0.150%	0.250%	0.350%	0.750%	0.150%	0.250%	0.350%	0.750%
RHB	0.375%	0.500%	0.750%	1.250%	0.375%	0.500%	0.750%	1.250%
HSBC	0.180%	0.260%	0.450%		0.180%	0.260%	0.450%
	$500,000-$999,999
Maybank	0.600%	0.720%	1.000%	1.850%
BOC		0.680%	1.180%
SBI	0.500%	0.600%	0.900%	1.100%
UOB	0.150%	0.250%	0.450%	0.700%
OCBC	0.150%	0.250%	0.450%	0.700%
DBS	0.150%	0.250%	0.450%	NA
Citibank	0.150%	0.250%	0.250%	0.350%
CIMB
StanChart	0.250%	0.250%	0.350%	0.950%
RHB	0.375%	0.500%	0.750%	1.250%
HSBC	0.180%	0.280%	0.510%	NA
Savings a/c	Type	Interest	Remarks
Maybank	Isavvy	0.475304	>$50k. Int over int approximated
StanChart	Esaver	0.35	>$200k
Updated	11-Jul-11

HP: Has it Become Oversold?

Image: HP

From HP's website: 

"The world’s largest technology company, HP brings together a portfolio that spans printing, personal computing, software, services and IT infrastructure at the convergence of the cloud and connectivity, creating seamless, secure, context-aware experiences for a connected world"

HP has recently tested new 52 week lows, and are now priced at what seems to be a ridiculous 8.5x forecasted (forecasted by HP, that is) 2011 earnings. This is close to its lowest levels in the last 10 years. Generally, "old" tech companies have become rather cheap, with many of the major names like Microsoft, Cisco, and HP becoming unloved, despite their strong and consistent profitability. 

Disclosure:  I currently have no holdings in HPQ.

Forbes Interview with Greenblatt on Value Investing

Joel Greenblatt appears on Forbes, and discusses his new book, the Big Secret for the Small Investor. He is more commonly known for his Little Book of Investing that Beats the Market, part of the little book series. More on that here.

He explains why, among other things, while the stock market is forward looking, why studying backward looking financials can make sense, and why opportunities can arise such as companies with strong return on capital and earnings yield can be selling cheap. He feels that when such opportunities arise, it is because the market is pricing in low expectations. Hence if there is any neutral to good news coming out of that company, it would be rewarded while since negative expectations are already priced in, it would not have much further downside. Have a watch, he also has some interesting insights into how short-term-inism can sideline one's portfolio.

KLA Tencor: Buy, Hold or Sell?

Image: KLA Tencor

KLA Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) is currently trading at low valuations, on a back of a robust earnings year, and moving to its record, with healthy capex spending from semi-conductor majors like Intel and TSMC. 

With a yield management products being an almost must have for its customers, is KLAC currently cheap to buy, or is capex going to slip leading to a deflated stock price for KLAC? 

Disclosure: I have no holdings in KLAC currently.